Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x910e…390f crypto 12 markets active 18h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.8% +8.4% 90% 60% +8.5%
≤30d 12 +8.5% -1.8% 83% 50% -16.6%
≤90d 12 +8.5% -1.8% 83% 50% -16.6%
all 12 +8.5% -1.8% 83% 50% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 50% -16.6%
10% -11.2% 25% -24.6%
15% -19.8% 25% -31.9%
20% -27.6% 17% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records