Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x910b…ad16 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+30%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$15
sports 24% +$79
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+110.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +133.0% +110.8% 38% 38% +76.1%
≤30d 13 +133.0% +110.8% 38% 38% +76.1%
≤90d 13 +133.0% +110.8% 38% 38% +76.1%
all 13 +133.0% +110.8% 38% 38% +76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +110.8% 38% +76.1%
10% ← realistic here +90.6% 38% +59.2%
15% +72.2% 38% +43.9%
20% +55.3% 38% +29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +251% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+138%)
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) New Zealand 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$14 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$14 +340%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$45 +870%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$26 -47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $5 +$26 +502%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$15 +473%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $30 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 96¢ $31 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $5 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 21¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.37 · official $11.37 (match) · 32 history records