Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9107…75e0 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%160W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$21
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 4% -9.8%
≤30d 169 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 169 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 9% -9.4%
all 169 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$51 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses160 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage12d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Alexander Zverev 94¢ 100¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+6%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Max Alcala Gurri 94¢ 84¢ $80 $71 −$9 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $69 +$4 +5%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $70 +$6 +8%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $69 +$2 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $70 +$6 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $69 +$5 +7%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $70 +$4 +5%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $79 +$3 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $80 +$6 +8%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $80 +$4 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $69 +$4 +6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $69 +$2 +3%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $70 +$5 +7%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $70 +$4 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $69 +$4 +6%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $69 +$5 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $69 +$2 +3%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $69 +$4 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $69 +$4 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $70 +$4 +5%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $59 +$5 +8%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $59 +$3 +5%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $65 +$3 +4%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $75 +$5 +6%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $129 −$53 -42%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $70 +$3 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $119 +$6 +5%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $80 +$5 +6%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $60 +$4 +7%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $69 +$2 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $29 +$4 +15%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $70 +$3 +4%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $69 1h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 92¢ $70 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 94¢ $19 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 97¢ $69 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 94¢ $80 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 95¢ $69 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 96¢ $50 2h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 95¢ $60 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 92¢ $70 2h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 93¢ $69 3h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 95¢ $80 3h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 95¢ $70 3h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 96¢ $79 4h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 93¢ $80 4h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 95¢ $80 4h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $80 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $69 20h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 93¢ $70 20h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 95¢ $70 20h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $69 21h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 93¢ $69 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $69 23h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 94¢ $69 27h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 94¢ $69 28h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 98¢ $69 28h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 94¢ $69 41h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 95¢ $69 42h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 95¢ $70 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $50 2d
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.57 · official $229.00 (match) · 340 history records