trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 38% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 25 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 48% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $34 | +$1 | +3% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $37 | −$3 | -8% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $30 | −$1 | -3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 06 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $69 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9? | May 08 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | -1% |