Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9107…b6e0 crypto 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$859 (-3%) realized −$812 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate68%209W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$142
14 days−$337
30 days−$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,157
weather 6% −$201
sports 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.2% -11.5% 88% 35% -14.6%
≤30d 190 -6.9% -15.8% 67% 41% -11.9%
≤90d 308 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 48% -13.3%
all 308 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 48% -13.3%
10% -22.0% 34% -21.6%
15% -29.5% 25% -29.2%
20% -36.4% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$73 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$812
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses209 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)308 / 309
History coverage56d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Up 79¢ 6¢ $51 $4 −$47 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $180 −$147 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $146 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $132 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $128 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $110 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $94 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $79 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $146 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$4 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $148 −$147 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$34 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$8 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$43 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$25 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$51 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$78 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$14 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$89 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $81 +$10 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$44 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $180 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $161 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $161 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $146 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $20 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $27 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $140 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $132 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $132 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $128 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.55 · official $14.52 · 1099 history records