Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9104…5a78 crypto 1367 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,138 (-23%) realized −$6,138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%750W / 821L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$660
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -74.1% -76.6% 14% 14% -47.8%
≤30d 772 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 39% -16.7%
≤90d 1571 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 44% -17.0%
all 1571 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 44% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 44% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 36% -24.9%
15% -35.7% 31% -32.2%
20% -42.0% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses750 / 821
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1571 / 1367
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1571 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $160 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records