Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9104…92db other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$109 (-30%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$154
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$155
crypto 12% −$15
economics 10% −$36
politics 9% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -88.4% -89.5% 0% 0% -76.2%
≤30d 5 -88.4% -89.5% 0% 0% -76.2%
≤90d 12 -84.2% -85.7% 8% 0% -76.5%
all 14 -72.3% -74.9% 14% 0% -68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.9% 0% -68.6%
10% -77.3% 0% -71.6%
15% -79.5% 0% -74.3%
20% -81.5% 0% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -118% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage96d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -99%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $127 −$86 -68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$13 -43%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $43 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 17 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $28 −$26 -96%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 25 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 24 $13 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 37¢ $56 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austr BUY $3 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $16 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $25 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 41d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes $9 47d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No $10 47d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes $3 59d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes $16 59d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes $1 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records