Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9101…fcfa world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% $0
other 30% −$7
politics 6% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 7% -9.8%
all 36 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 6% -10.6%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage482d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $80 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $2 $0 +10%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -61%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 22 $6 $0 +4%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $27 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $27 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $27 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $27 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.60 · official $30.60 (match) · 118 history records