Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x9100…7627 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$110
world 29% +$76
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -44.0% -49.4% 33% 33% -23.1%
all 3 -44.0% -49.4% 33% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 33% -23.1%
10% -54.2% 33% -30.5%
15% -58.6% 33% -37.2%
20% -62.7% 33% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$55 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage42d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $113 +$76 +68%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 14d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 42d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $189 42d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10 42d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 53¢ $102 42d
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 1¢ $105 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.05 · official $159.05 (match) · 24 history records