Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

90 0x90ff…0b33 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$495 (-57%) realized −$489 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-78.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-76.7%	-78.9%	17%	17%	-94.2%
≤30d	6	-76.7%	-78.9%	17%	17%	-94.2%
≤90d	6	-76.7%	-78.9%	17%	17%	-94.2%
all	6	-76.7%	-78.9%	17%	17%	-94.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-78.9%	17%	-94.2%
10%	-80.9%	17%	-94.7%
15%	-82.8%	17%	-95.3%
20%	-84.5%	0%	-95.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -94% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$106 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$290

Realized−$489

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$47	$46	−$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 19	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 19	$32	−$30	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$10	+40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$364	−$356	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$72	−$70	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$47	58m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$51	59m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	59m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$152	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	27¢	$364	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$72	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.09 · official $290.09 (match) · 13 history records