Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90fe…9ed9 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
world 41% +$6
politics 7% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 7 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 14% -6.6%
≤90d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 12% -6.7%
all 26 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 4% -8.8%
10% -22.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -29.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage472d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 +$5 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Dec 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $1 $0 -12%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $36 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $44 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $7 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $7 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $44 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $44 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $8 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? SELL Yes $1 361d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $3 362d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 362d
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 413d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? SELL Yes $0 427d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? SELL Yes $1 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.03 · official $37.03 (match) · 70 history records