Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90fd…ab29 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$134 (-3%) realized −$130 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day165.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 48% -18.4%
≤30d 23 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 48% -18.4%
≤90d 23 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 48% -18.4%
all 23 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 48% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 48% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 48% -26.2%
15% -34.2% 48% -33.3%
20% -40.6% 43% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$159 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day165.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $141 $140 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $133 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $129 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $275 +$125 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$145 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $160 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $160 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$133 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $174 +$126 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $159 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$148 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$146 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$145 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$147 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$148 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $188 −$182 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $156 +$144 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $163 +$137 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $133 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $137 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $116 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $44 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $22 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.72 · official $398.72 (match) · 178 history records