Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

90 0x90f8…64c9 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,521 (-12%) realized −$1,660 · open +$139

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$566per market

Trades / day13.2pace

Fees−$101est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$2,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-51.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-46.0%	-51.1%	25%	25%	-43.5%
≤30d	16	-46.0%	-51.1%	25%	25%	-43.5%
≤90d	16	-46.0%	-51.1%	25%	25%	-43.5%
all	16	-46.0%	-51.1%	25%	25%	-43.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.2 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-51.1%	25%	-43.5%
10% ← realistic here	-55.8%	19%	-48.9%
15%	-60.1%	19%	-53.8%
20%	-64.0%	6%	-58.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -78% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$464 vs −$452 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2,539

Realized−$1,660

Unrealized+$139

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$101

Open positions7

Markets (closed)16 / 23

History coverage3d

Avg bet$566

Trades / day13.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	72¢	81¢	$1,500	$1,698	+$198 (+13%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$250	$240	−$10 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$250	$234	−$16 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	25¢	30¢	$100	$118	+$18 (+18%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$100	$48	−$52 (-52%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$1,022	−$1,000	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$1,016	−$1,016	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$244	−$237	-97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$966	−$950	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$37	+36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$354	−$345	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$513	−$300	-58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$514	−$500	-97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$80	−$5	-6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$670	−$670	-100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,438	−$192	-13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$916	+$1,334	+146%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$505	+$102	+20%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$103	−$101	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,015	+$385	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	72¢	$1,513	14m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	77¢	$885	43m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	77¢	$566	52m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$1,014	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	28¢	$1,022	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$1,016	6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	8h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$966	8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$138	8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	73¢	$102	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$251	33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	5¢	$213	33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$257	35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$256	35h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	41h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUY Yes	4¢	$104	42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$257	44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$257	44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$514	44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$916	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$615	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	83¢	$607	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	68¢	$505	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,539.10 · official $2,539.31 (match) · 47 history records