Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
90 0x90f3…ac83 crypto 841 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Total PnL −$1,788 (-9%) realized −$1,876 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate58%484W / 348L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$56
14 days−$68
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$370
other 26% −$894
world 17% −$79
sports 9% −$2
finance 6% −$169
economics 5% −$149
politics 3% −$11
tech 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -13.2% -21.4% 33% 33% -33.0%
≤30d 165 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 50% -12.4%
≤90d 832 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 24% -18.3%
all 832 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 24% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 24% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 20% -26.1%
15% -31.9% 16% -33.2%
20% -38.6% 11% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,876
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses484 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions9
Markets (closed)832 / 841
History coverage68d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 832 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 25¢ 76¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+202%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Lulu Sun 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner TDK 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 67¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 69¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Yulia Putintseva 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot Linda Fruhvirtova 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Kayla Day 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Talia Gibson 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Elvina Kalieva 63¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian McCartney Kessler 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Arthur Rinderknech 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Solana Sierra 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Paris: Chloe Paquet vs Maya Joint Maya Joint 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Emerson Jones 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry Madison Keys 77¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +34%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +83%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Eva Vedder Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$18 +874%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $2 +$4 +197%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 +$2 +134%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $12 +$7 +63%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $2 +$4 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Decatur: Maria Sholokhova vs Anna Rogers Jun 11 $1 +$1 +44%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $10 +$4 +46%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 −$9 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $10 +$3 +36%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $2 +$2 +114%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $2 +$2 +119%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Eva Vedder Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jan Kumstat vs Matteo Covato Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Petra Sedlackova Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Aneta Kucmova vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 70¢ $1 2h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 27¢ $1 7h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 70¢ $1 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Lulu Sun 13¢ $2 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $1 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 58¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 69¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 33¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $2 29h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 15¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $2 33h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 25¢ $2 33h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Eva Vedder BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 13¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 80¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 54¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.64 · official $16.64 (match) · 3500 history records