trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 27% | 27% | -20.6% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 27% | 27% | -20.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 27% | 27% | -20.6% |
| all | 27 | -23.6% | -30.9% | 37% | 30% | -17.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.9% | 30% | -17.3% |
| 10% | -37.5% | 22% | -25.2% |
| 15% | -43.5% | 15% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -49.1% | 15% | -39.1% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Jun 15 | $1 | +$2 | +156% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1 | +$3 | +335% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Jun 15 | $11 | +$12 | +113% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | Mar 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Mar 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Mar 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Mar 01 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 01 | $1 | +$4 | +373% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 22 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| ICE shooter charged by March 31? | Jan 22 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 22 | $10 | +$3 | +26% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 19 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire before July? | Jun 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |