Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x90f0…2923 sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,716 (-16%) realized −$4,618 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$466est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,800
crypto 1% −$211
politics 1% −$16
other 1% −$81
tech 1% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.1% +20.4% 62% 62% +7.1%
≤30d 8 +33.1% +20.4% 62% 62% +7.1%
≤90d 206 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 41% -28.2%
all 280 -5.9% -14.8% 43% 42% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 42% -25.8%
10% -23.0% 41% -32.9%
15% -30.4% 40% -39.4%
20% -37.2% 37% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$97 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$4,618
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 159
Est. fees paid−$466
Open positions2
Markets (closed)280 / 282
History coverage612d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 64¢ 72¢ $164 $184 +$20 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 28¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $75 +$96 +128%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$174 +171%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $97 −$96 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $59 +$38 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $35 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$20 +134%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $604 −$594 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 03 $133 −$130 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $72 +$64 +90%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $74 −$2 -2%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $99 +$38 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $78 −$76 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $94 +$79 +84%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $99 −$97 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $209 −$206 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $257 +$51 +20%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $150 −$147 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $100 −$97 -97%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $200 −$197 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $162 −$159 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $100 +$262 +262%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $151 −$148 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $115 −$113 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $59 +$7 +12%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $65 +$44 +68%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $50 +$65 +131%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Apr 24 $150 −$147 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $96 −$94 -98%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $48 +$48 +101%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $49 +$49 +100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $18 −$17 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $42 +$2 +4%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $52 +$74 +142%
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $50 +$47 +93%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $251 −$249 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $506 −$346 -68%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $221 −$170 -77%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $201 +$120 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $123 +$100 +81%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $81 +$42 +52%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $20 +$19 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 23m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 23m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $53 23m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $6 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $7 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $26 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 24m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $42 34m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 46¢ $72 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $172 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $75 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $131 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $14 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $55 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $76 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 15h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 30¢ $51 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $61 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $97 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $97 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $59 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.19 · official $184.19 (match) · 711 history records