Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90ed…1f67 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% $0
politics 28% −$2
economics 6% $0
world 5% $0
sports 2% −$12
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +14.3% +3.5% 27% 9% -7.6%
≤90d 74 -2.1% -11.5% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 74 -2.1% -11.5% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage79d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $335 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $316 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $75 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 38¢ $6 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 32d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 33d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 33d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $71 33d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $73 34d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $73 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.50 · official $61.50 (match) · 214 history records