trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jun 12 | $876 | −$539 | -62% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$553 | +259598% |
| Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $2,251 | −$2,251 | -100% |
| Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 04 | $11,566 | −$11,564 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $10,599 | −$10,540 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $3,504 | −$3,466 | -99% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 20 | $3,200 | +$1,244 | +39% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 20 | $5,570 | +$22,261 | +400% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 05 | $3,555 | −$11,207 | -315% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $18,824 | +$64 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 25 | $2,025 | −$2,476 | -122% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 25 | $770 | −$719 | -93% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 23 | $4,185 | −$15,254 | -364% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Apr 22 | $800 | −$800 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Apr 22 | $1,167 | −$1,167 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 22 | $1,135 | −$1,134 | -100% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 22 | $1,149 | −$258 | -22% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 15 | $311 | −$112 | -36% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +94.4% | +75.9% | 9% | 9% | -90.4% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +73.6% | +57.0% | 19% | 19% | -21.4% |
| ≤90d | 26 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 15% | 12% | -46.1% |
| all | 26 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 15% | 12% | -46.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +3.5% | 12% | -46.1% |
| 10% | -6.4% | 12% | -51.3% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -15.5% | 12% | -56.0% |
| 20% | -23.8% | 8% | -60.3% |