Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90e8…8d87 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$232 (-9%) realized −$226 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$144
14 days−$352
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$647
other 11% +$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.4% -18.1% 42% 42% -18.5%
≤30d 78 -13.5% -21.8% 38% 36% -22.5%
≤90d 78 -13.5% -21.8% 38% 36% -22.5%
all 78 -13.5% -21.8% 38% 36% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 36% -22.5%
10% -29.2% 36% -29.9%
15% -36.1% 36% -36.7%
20% -42.3% 29% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$28 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 48
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage19d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Team Falcons 40¢ 38¢ $148 $143 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $97 −$95 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $119 −$117 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $151 +$66 +44%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $52 −$52 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $118 +$187 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $222 −$218 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $71 +$151 +213%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$68 +167%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$19 +74%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 07 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$17 +170%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $58 +$23 +40%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $27 +$40 +147%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $33 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $42 +$15 +36%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$26 +168%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$16 +103%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $26 +$15 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $97 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Hamish Stewart 38¢ $119 4h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 97¢ $217 4h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 67¢ $151 6h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 59¢ $52 15h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $101 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $151 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 66¢ $101 16h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $101 16h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 63¢ $101 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $305 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $118 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $118 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $222 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $222 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $31 43h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 14¢ $21 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 37¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 37¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 44¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 28¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 26¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.58 · official $142.58 (match) · 137 history records