Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

90 0x90e8…2aab sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$96 (-5%) realized −$96 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day7.3pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$208

7 days+$302

14 days+$581

30 days+$581

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+50.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+49.6%	+35.3%	38%	38%	+31.8%
≤30d	20	+66.6%	+50.7%	40%	40%	+50.8%
≤90d	20	+66.6%	+50.7%	40%	40%	+50.8%
all	20	+66.6%	+50.7%	40%	40%	+50.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.7%	40%	+50.8%
10%	+36.3%	35%	+36.3%
15%	+23.1%	35%	+23.2%
20%	+11.0%	35%	+11.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +123% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$118 vs −$30 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$96

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 48

History coverage8d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day7.3

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$58	+$277	+474%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr	Jun 27	$9	−$8	-92%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$67	−$4	-6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$54	−$22	-40%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 27	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$48	+$68	+143%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	Jun 23	$18	+$3	+20%
England leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$102	−$34	-33%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$68	−$67	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	Jun 23	$54	+$145	+268%
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime?	Jun 21	$10	+$14	+139%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 21	$16	+$85	+518%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists	Jun 20	$68	−$68	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20	Jun 20	$102	+$145	+142%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists	Jun 20	$35	+$208	+596%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$58	1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	19¢	$45	2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	38¢	$88	2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr	SELL	1¢	$1	3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY	5¢	$11	5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Con	BUY	31¢	$33	6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL	45¢	$63	7h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Cr	BUY	8¢	$9	9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Algeria	BUY	9¢	$24	9h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Exac	BUY	12¢	$28	9h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	46¢	$67	9h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	24¢	$25	9h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY	13¢	$15	9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY	44¢	$48	9h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY	32¢	$32	12h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo:	BUY	9¢	$20	15h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	27¢	$32	22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	44¢	$54	23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	24h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	42h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2	BUY	12¢	$15	2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Will Australia win on 202	BUY	8¢	$10	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	24¢	$37	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Korea Re	BUY	34¢	$51	3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U	BUY	41¢	$68	4d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	4d
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$102	4d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	83¢	$18	4d
England leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	18¢	$68	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $193.70 · 66 history records