Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x90e8…eb90 sports 28 markets active 6h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$3 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$12
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1
other 25% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +82.8% +65.4% 50% 50% +47.3%
≤30d 26 +37.9% +24.7% 58% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 26 +37.9% +24.7% 58% 50% -6.0%
all 26 +37.9% +24.7% 58% 50% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.7% 50% -6.0%
10% +12.8% 50% -15.0%
15% +1.9% 46% -23.2%
20% -8.1% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +344%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $15 +$5 +32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $2 +$4 +172%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $1 $0 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +188%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $3 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 64¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $1 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 80¢ $17 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 29¢ $4 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 60¢ $6 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FULL SENSE 80¢ $4 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FULL SENSE 67¢ $16 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 51¢ $15 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FUT Esports 34¢ $5 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $5 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL Leviatán Esports 68¢ $2 10d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 27¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO $1 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 70¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 72¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 62¢ $1 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 92¢ $1 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 18¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 70¢ $1 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.87 · official $16.87 (match) · 60 history records