Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90e7…6f0e weather 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$71 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate37%190W / 329L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$236
other 35% −$109
weather 11% −$101
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.2% -36.9% 0% 0% -26.9%
≤30d 143 -17.5% -25.3% 62% 17% -14.0%
≤90d 468 -23.2% -30.5% 35% 20% -12.5%
all 519 -21.6% -29.0% 37% 21% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 21% -9.4%
10% -35.8% 18% -18.0%
15% -42.0% 16% -26.0%
20% -47.7% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses190 / 329
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)519 / 520
History coverage98d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $10 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $9 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 46¢ $9 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 48¢ $10 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $51 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 94¢ $56 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.23 · official $45.23 (match) · 1365 history records