Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
90 0x90e3…6298 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$237 (-2%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%54W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$425
7 days+$69
14 days+$586
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$759
other 44% +$886
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 46% -8.9%
≤30d 98 -14.8% -22.9% 55% 48% -8.7%
≤90d 98 -14.8% -22.9% 55% 48% -8.7%
all 98 -14.8% -22.9% 55% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 48% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 32% -17.4%
15% -37.0% 19% -25.4%
20% -43.2% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$67 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses54 / 44
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage14d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $477 +$420 +88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $28 +$69 +251%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $155 +$5 +3%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $43 +$7 +17%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $80 +$20 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,708 +$274 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,175 +$435 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $882 +$62 +7%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $380 +$20 +5%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $600 −$314 -52%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $75 −$46 -61%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $70 +$30 +43%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $75 +$24 +32%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $70 +$30 +43%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $75 +$25 +32%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $80 +$20 +25%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $89 +$11 +12%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $85 +$15 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $49 +$46 +94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $74 +$26 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $132 +$67 +51%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $154 +$20 +13%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $140 +$60 +43%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $80 +$20 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $40 +$10 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $75 +$24 +32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $90 +$9 +10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $35 +$99 +281%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $84 +$16 +19%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 90¢ $897 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 23h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $56 41h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 41h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $0 41h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $136 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $160 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $65 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $50 43h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $43 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 43h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 45h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,560 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $422 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,708 46h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 46h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $94 46h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 46h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $79 46h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $67 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 82¢ $410 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $173 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $355 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $149 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $441 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records