Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x90df…4df7 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 101L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$33
politics 17% −$9
sports 10% +$32
economics 7% −$3
culture 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 9% -9.6%
all 116 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 9% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage89d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $349 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $295 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $356 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $309 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $313 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $638 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $313 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $628 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $627 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $42 32h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $42 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $15 36h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $64 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.91 · official $197.91 (match) · 337 history records