Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x90de…df7b weather 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +31.2% +18.7% 100% 25% -8.9%
all 4 +31.2% +18.7% 100% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 25% -8.9%
10% +7.3% 25% -17.6%
15% -3.1% 25% -25.6%
20% -12.6% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage82d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ju Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on April 16? May 18 $143 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $77 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $143 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.90 · official $178.90 (match) · 9 history records