Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90dd…c435 crypto 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+5%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%84W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$89
sports 28% +$28
other 3% −$9
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +73.6% +57.1% 50% 29% -3.7%
≤30d 35 +38.9% +25.7% 49% 31% -6.0%
≤90d 195 -5.0% -14.1% 43% 36% -17.1%
all 195 -5.0% -14.1% 43% 36% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 36% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 32% -25.1%
15% -29.8% 28% -32.3%
20% -36.7% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses84 / 111
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Up 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 +$26 +5971%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 19 $0 $0 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 16? May 18 $5 +$1 +24%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mikael Lindberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream May 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Zagreb: Elmer Moeller vs Zsombor Piros May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $2 +$3 +134%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Republic of Ireland vs. Grenada: O/U 3.5 May 17 $2 +$3 +186%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular May 17 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Grenada (-1.5) May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ventforet Kōfu vs. FC Gifu: O/U 4.5 May 16 $1 $0 +15%
LoL: EXILE esports vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season May 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $3 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $3 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $3 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $2 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $5 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $3 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $3 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $3 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $2 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $2 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $3 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $2 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $4 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $1 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $2 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $1 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $4 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $1 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.73 · official $7.74 (match) · 3500 history records