Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90db…03d6 sports 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%174W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,157
7 days−$1,070
14 days−$1,013
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$313
other 17% +$136
crypto 4% −$15
world 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -56.6% -60.7% 15% 15% -64.6%
≤30d 288 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 35% -21.9%
≤90d 531 -11.2% -19.6% 33% 32% -13.1%
all 531 -11.2% -19.6% 33% 32% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 32% -13.1%
10% -27.3% 31% -21.4%
15% -34.3% 29% -29.0%
20% -40.8% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses174 / 357
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)531 / 533
History coverage58d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 531 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1 +$2 +215%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 40¢ $1 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 37¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 21¢ $1 14h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 31¢ $1 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $1 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 37h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 31¢ $1 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $1 41h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 36¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $6 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 17¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $0.88 (match) · 1321 history records