Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x90da…4d0a crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$609 (-87%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$609
other 6% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -85.8%
all 6 -83.1% -84.7% 17% 0% -94.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.7% 0% -94.9%
10% -86.2% 0% -95.4%
15% -87.5% 0% -95.9%
20% -88.8% 0% -96.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$122 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage204d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $207 −$193 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 26? Nov 26 $413 −$413 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 26? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 25? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $207 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 33d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 202d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 202d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 202d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 203d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $411 203d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.16 · official $40.16 (match) · 11 history records