Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x90d5…d879 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+11%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$15
other 11% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.4% -19.9% 61% 56% +1.7%
≤30d 18 -11.4% -19.9% 61% 56% +1.7%
≤90d 18 -11.4% -19.9% 61% 56% +1.7%
all 18 -11.4% -19.9% 61% 56% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 56% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 28% -8.0%
15% -34.5% 28% -16.9%
20% -41.0% 17% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$20 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $27 +$17 +63%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 15h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records