Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c8…4573 sports 1173 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate72%830W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$367
7 days−$336
14 days−$233
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$324
other 40% −$433
finance 4% +$66
world 2% +$18
crypto 2% −$45
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 45% -13.8%
≤30d 402 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 1137 -1.3% -10.7% 72% 41% -9.7%
all 1146 -1.0% -10.4% 72% 41% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 41% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 23% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 15% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses830 / 316
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1146 / 1173
History coverage148d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 97¢ 100¢ $115 $119 +$4 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 98¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 97¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 69¢ 51¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 90¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 91¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $133 −$2 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 +$35 +43%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $325 −$322 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$6 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 +$13 +17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $154 +$61 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $43 +$10 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$24 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $125 +$36 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$21 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$7 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$29 +14%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $121 +$89 +73%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$30 +32%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $187 +$18 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $150 +$15 +10%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $440 +$106 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$4 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $301 +$143 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $300 +$16 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $115 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $81 8h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 93¢ $131 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $133 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $3 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $44 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $49 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 9h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 76¢ $93 9h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 9h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $38 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $25 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 83¢ $25 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $15 9h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $25 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $25 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 11h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 11h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $101 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.57 · official $328.57 (match) · 3211 history records