Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c6…22b6 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$3
world 40% −$9
other 11% −$11
politics 2% −$5
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.9% -13.0% 17% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 20 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 41 -4.3% -13.5% 34% 0% -10.0%
all 43 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -10.4%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage488d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -22%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$3 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $149 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $204 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $96 −$4 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $47 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $33 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $16 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $10 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $0 $0 -7%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $268 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $573 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $12 −$11 -93%
NFT Kid vs. White Boy Summer Feb 18 $13 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $32 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $30 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $33 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $26.82 (match) · 188 history records