Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90c5…534c sports 914 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,970 (-40%) realized −$28,117 · open +$147
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%497W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$547est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$814
other 9% −$1,183
world 1% −$67
crypto 0% −$49
tech 0% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +70.3% +54.1% 57% 57% +115.4%
≤30d 18 +95.0% +76.5% 67% 67% +119.6%
≤90d 494 +5.4% -4.7% 53% 53% -11.5%
all 884 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 56% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 56% -10.9%
10% -16.0% 54% -19.4%
15% -24.1% 43% -27.2%
20% -31.6% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$73 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,408
Realized−$28,117
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses497 / 387
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions14
Markets (closed)884 / 914
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 52¢ $102 $735 +$633 (+618%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $509 $590 +$80 (+16%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 14¢ $140 $290 +$150 (+107%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $274 $180 −$93 (-34%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $40 $172 +$131 (+326%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes $146 $149 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $118 $111 −$7 (-6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $59 $56 −$3 (-4%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes $123 $53 −$70 (-57%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes $58 $45 −$13 (-22%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $88 $14 −$74 (-84%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes $79 $10 −$69 (-87%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes $400 $2 −$398 (-99%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 29 $75 +$205 +273%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians AND Kansas City Royals vs. Ch Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England vs. Ghana end in a d Jun 23 $77 +$567 +737%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $77 +$155 +203%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $76 +$79 +103%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$54 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $76 +$42 +56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? May 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? May 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds May 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 25 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 25 $24 +$74 +307%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 24 $68 +$31 +46%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Apr 24 $29 +$69 +238%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils Apr 24 $62 +$37 +60%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 24 $67 +$32 +48%
Madrid Open: Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 24 $74 +$25 +34%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 24 $74 +$25 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 24 $78 +$22 +28%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 24 $81 +$19 +24%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $63 +$36 +56%
Madrid Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Marcos Giron Apr 23 $70 +$29 +42%
Madrid Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Diana Shnaider Apr 23 $73 +$26 +36%
Madrid Open: Dalma Galfi vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm Apr 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Apr 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 23 $146 +$52 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 23 $156 +$44 +28%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Madrid Open: Daria Snigur vs Daria Kasatkina Apr 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Madrid Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Solana Sierra Apr 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Apr 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Apr 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 23 $130 +$70 +54%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 23 $150 +$50 +33%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 22 $12 +$7 +60%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 22 $66 +$33 +50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Apr 22 $14 +$4 +32%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Royer Apr 22 $71 +$28 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees AND Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philade BUY 11¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will England win on 2026-07-01 BUY 12¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 33¢ $297 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 33¢ $74 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 26¢ $75 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06 BUY 14¢ $50 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm AND Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky AND BUY 37¢ $74 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians AND Kansas City Royals vs. Ch BUY 73¢ $25 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles AND Cincinnati Reds vs. Pit BUY 21¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will New Zealand vs. Belgium BUY $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in BUY $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw BUY $25 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a dr BUY $25 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $200 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 12¢ $100 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $99 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 28¢ $77 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY $77 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY $77 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a d BUY $77 5d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovin BUY $51 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Morocco BUY 15¢ $51 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil en BUY $77 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $77 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a dr BUY $77 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England vs. Ghana end in a d BUY 12¢ $77 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 27¢ $77 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,408.33 · official $2,821.03 · 3500 history records