Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bf…3348 world 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,597 (-2%) realized −$2,885 · open −$712
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%110W / 68L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,107per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$24,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$17,067
other 44% +$3,503
sports 5% +$19,192
politics 3% +$401
crypto 2% +$2,336
economics 1% +$229
tech 1% +$55
finance 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.8% +13.8% 63% 26% -3.5%
≤30d 56 +26.1% +14.1% 66% 39% +16.1%
≤90d 156 +7.2% -3.0% 63% 29% -4.6%
all 178 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 28% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 28% -4.4%
10% -13.2% 15% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -21.6% 11% -21.9%
20% -29.3% 8% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$880) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$407 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$24,301
Realized−$2,885
Unrealized−$712
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses110 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions21
Markets (closed)178 / 201
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$1,107
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $7,150 $7,331 +$181 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,089 $4,680 +$591 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,707 $3,443 −$1,264 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,218 $2,319 +$101 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1,280 $985 −$295 (-23%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $967 −$33 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $811 $804 −$7 (-1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 20¢ 17¢ $950 $790 −$159 (-17%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? No 89¢ 94¢ $720 $756 +$36 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $630 +$330 (+110%)
Ledger IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 37¢ $296 $365 +$69 (+23%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $125 −$75 (-37%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31? Yes 85¢ 55¢ $150 $97 −$53 (-36%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31? Yes 66¢ 54¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $98 $62 −$36 (-37%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by June 30? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $45 $32 −$13 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9,899 +$100 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $400 −$303 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,778 +$142 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3,800 +$80 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $400 +$400 +100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $616 +$8 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1,021 +$2,363 +231%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,467 −$971 -66%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,370 +$20 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,508 +$45 +2%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 20 $4,104 +$729 +18%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $351 −$349 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $831 −$548 -66%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $13,100 +$1,127 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $59 +$310 +528%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 18 $20 +$37 +186%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $2,917 +$2,072 +71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$61 -61%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$25 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 17 $900 +$125 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $396 +$22 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $255 +$17 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,000 +$145 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $705 +$220 +31%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4,592 +$19,828 +432%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $309 +$41 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $700 +$78 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $205 +$81 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$41 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $2,060 +$140 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,107 −$180 -16%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$14 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $369 +$191 +52%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,053 +$91 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $72 +$19 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $426 +$1,302 +306%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $910 +$210 +23%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 30 $508 +$27 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $53 −$48 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $81 2m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 3m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 4m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 5m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $202 5m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $179 6m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 8m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 10m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 11m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 12m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 13m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 13m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 16m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 16m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 17m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $187 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,301.27 · official $24,302.24 (match) · 3500 history records