Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

90
0x90bf…99eb
sports · 276 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$7,987 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,062 · open −$3,075
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,245
Realized+$11,062
Unrealized−$3,075
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses132 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions18
Markets (closed)258 / 276
History coverage152d
Avg bet$627
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 18 History 258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days+$291
30 days+$1,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 73¢ 81¢ $6,321 $6,958 +$637 (+10%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 19¢ $5,077 $2,682 −$2,395 (-47%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 27¢ 20¢ $1,378 $1,059 −$320 (-23%)
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 98¢ $397 $401 +$4 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $1,181 $359 −$822 (-70%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 77¢ 80¢ $332 $343 +$12 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $292 $108 −$183 (-63%)
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $73 $69 −$4 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 10¢ 10¢ $69 $65 −$3 (-5%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 51¢ 48¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 63¢ 64¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 8¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 27¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 37¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? No 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 20¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $62 +$2 +4%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $16 +$2 +9%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 +$29 +105%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $111 −$38 -34%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $6 +$4 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $151 −$148 -98%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $2 $0 +11%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $23 +$1 +4%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $39 +$1 +2%
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $39 +$1 +2%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $432 +$7 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $78 +$12 +15%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +4%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 02 $134 +$30 +22%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $73 −$72 -99%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 01 $607 −$589 -97%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 01 $27 −$26 -95%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $56 +$78 +140%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $143 +$68 +47%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $10,602 +$960 +9%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 29 $55 −$53 -97%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $167 +$126 +75%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $6,504 +$243 +4%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $15 +$19 +134%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we May 19 $80 +$7 +9%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week May 19 $44 +$190 +432%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee May 19 $11 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $2,928 +$118 +4%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $1,475 +$29 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 18 $147 −$144 -98%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $4,489 +$72 +2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $1,647 +$77 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $30 +$27 +91%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $28 −$1 -5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $17 +$23 +130%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$6,827
other 31% +$11,768
economics 10% −$9,966
culture 1% −$71
politics 0% −$571
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $164 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $4 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $13 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $37 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $15 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $96 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $38 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $18 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $18 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $79 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $144 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $15 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $7 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $11 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $12 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $19 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $20 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $374 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $49 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $4 9h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 20¢ $8 12h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 20¢ $8 12h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 20¢ $8 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 17% -15.4%
≤30d 51 -10.5% -19.0% 59% 25% -6.7%
≤90d 190 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 32% -9.4%
all 258 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 31% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 31% -3.2%
10% -21.9% 24% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 21% -20.9%
20% -36.4% 17% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,244.58 · official $12,244.58 (match) · 3500 history records