Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bb…531f sports 430 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,069 (+29%) realized +$8,025 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%163W / 266L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day57.6pace
Fees−$494est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,501
other 2% +$180
crypto 1% −$20
world 0% −$49
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 36% -0.7%
≤30d 331 -4.0% -13.2% 40% 37% -2.0%
≤90d 429 +4.8% -5.2% 38% 35% -1.1%
all 429 +4.8% -5.2% 38% 35% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 35% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -10.6%
15% -22.5% 32% -19.2%
20% -30.1% 26% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$39 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$8,025
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses163 / 266
Est. fees paid−$494
Open positions1
Markets (closed)429 / 430
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 31¢ 55¢ $57 $101 +$44 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $18 +$28 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 −$16 -9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$17 +62%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $149 +$162 +108%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$26 +94%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $301 −$61 -20%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $75 +$25 +32%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$16 +61%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $50 +$187 +371%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$42 +42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$12 -21%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $183 −$97 -53%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $115 +$122 +106%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $116 −$70 -60%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $221 +$177 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $405 +$94 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $148 +$97 +65%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $288 −$68 -24%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $30 +$25 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $369 −$42 -11%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $79 +$193 +244%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $88 −$5 -6%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $56 +$29 +51%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$9 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $56 +$44 +78%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $85 −$18 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 10¢ $30 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 20¢ $30 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 1¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 28¢ $28 2h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of SELL Riyadh Falcons 99¢ $46 4h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 39¢ $18 5h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 21¢ $25 5h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 32¢ $28 5h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 31¢ $27 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $46 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 72¢ $0 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 61¢ $28 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $54 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $28 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $23 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $29 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $29 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $8 7h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 99¢ $111 7h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 2¢ $3 7h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 2¢ $3 7h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $4 7h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $24 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $28 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag SELL Ursa 99¢ $8 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 5¢ $15 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 11¢ $22 7h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 20¢ $18 7h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 57¢ $28 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.37 · official $101.37 (match) · 3500 history records