Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90bb…f194 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 17% $0
politics 12% +$1
finance 10% +$1
crypto 9% −$1
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 49 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage456d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $7 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $43 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 06 $12 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 28 $11 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 22 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 21 $11 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $27 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $1 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $12 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $11 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $20 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.09 · official $35.09 (match) · 148 history records