Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90ba…63f3 other 578 markets active 18h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260,361 (-58%) realized −$258,705 · open −$1,656
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%135W / 730L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$772per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$4,065est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$4,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309,399
7 days−$305,642
14 days−$285,108
30 days−$229,738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$49,045
sports 45% +$70,499
world 0% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 -93.3% -93.9% 1% 1% -92.1%
≤30d 566 -51.1% -55.7% 10% 10% -56.8%
≤90d 865 -31.5% -38.1% 16% 16% -35.3%
all 865 -31.5% -38.1% 16% 16% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.1% 16% -35.3%
10% -44.0% 16% -41.5%
15% ← realistic here -49.4% 16% -47.1%
20% -54.4% 15% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$991) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +29% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,663 vs −$764 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$4,037
Realized−$258,705
Unrealized−$1,656
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses135 / 730
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$4,065
Open positions8
Markets (closed)865 / 578
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$772
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 865 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $1,606 $1,622 +$16 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $1,082 $1,056 −$26 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $630 $677 +$47 (+8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $258 $268 +$11 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 8¢ $315 $268 −$47 (-15%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $165 $142 −$23 (-14%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 0¢ $913 $2 −$911 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $724 $2 −$723 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 15 $958 −$958 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? Jun 15 $308 −$308 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-10? Jun 15 $615 −$615 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $813 −$813 -100%
Bucks vs. Clippers Jun 15 $854 −$854 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Jun 15 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-25? Jun 15 $454 −$454 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-31? Jun 15 $363 −$363 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $2,929 −$2,929 -100%
Will Lech Poznan win on 2025-08-21? Jun 15 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17? Jun 15 $875 −$875 -100%
Storm vs Sky Jun 15 $1,122 −$1,122 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Jun 15 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 15 $824 −$824 -100%
Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-11-13? Jun 15 $444 −$444 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jun 15 $610 −$610 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $488 −$488 -100%
Will Atlas FC win on 2025-10-25? Jun 15 $488 −$488 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-09-28? Jun 15 $635 −$635 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Jun 15 $492 −$492 -100%
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 15 $562 −$562 -100%
UFC 318: Judice vs. Caliari Jun 15 $523 −$523 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? Jun 15 $843 −$843 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2025-10-13? Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? Jun 15 $345 −$345 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $937 −$937 -100%
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? Jun 15 $681 −$681 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 15 $697 −$697 -100%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2025-11-29? Jun 15 $591 −$591 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $726 −$726 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? Jun 15 $894 −$894 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? Jun 15 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 15 $533 −$533 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Jun 15 $537 −$537 -100%
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $591 −$591 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? Jun 15 $542 −$542 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 15 $834 −$834 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 15 $964 −$964 -100%
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-19? Jun 15 $554 −$554 -100%
Will Club Puebla win on 2025-10-31? Jun 15 $857 −$857 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-06? Jun 15 $389 −$389 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2025-09-27? Jun 15 $549 −$549 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $850 −$850 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $1,464 −$1,464 -100%
Sky vs. Aces Jun 15 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2025-09-03? Jun 15 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-22? Jun 15 $610 −$610 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2025-09-05? Jun 15 $276 −$276 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $264 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $170 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $324 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $645 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $741 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $869 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $163 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $297 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $965 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $934 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $901 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $741 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $950 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,630 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1,107 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $862 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $309 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $549 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $204 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $613 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,523 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $343 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $385 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $789 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $469 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $702 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,212 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,107 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,036.57 · official $4,036.57 (match) · 3500 history records