trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -99.5% | -99.6% | 0% | 0% | -99.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -72.1% | -74.8% | 25% | 25% | -54.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 56% | 56% | -21.6% |
| all | 9 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 56% | 56% | -21.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.6% | 56% | -21.6% |
| 10% | -30.9% | 22% | -29.1% |
| 15% | -37.6% | 22% | -35.9% |
| 20% | -43.7% | 22% | -42.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 90¢ | $2,000 | $2,262 | +$262 (+13%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 99¢ | $500 | $618 | +$118 (+24%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 98¢ | $60 | $71 | +$11 (+19%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+5%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | $50 | $52 | +$2 (+4%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 90¢ | 88¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 28¢ | $100 | $43 | −$57 (-57%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $22 | $22 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? | Jun 17 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | Jun 15 | $102 | −$101 | -99% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 02 | $200 | +$21 | +11% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 02 | $93 | −$93 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 14 | $67 | +$11 | +17% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 14 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma | May 11 | $60 | +$46 | +77% |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? | May 09 | $100 | +$55 | +54% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 03 | $385 | −$58 | -15% |