Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90b3…4998 crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%80W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day136.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$12
sports 32% −$48
other 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -0.4% -9.8% 45% 34% -12.9%
≤30d 179 -0.4% -9.8% 45% 34% -12.9%
≤90d 179 -0.4% -9.8% 45% 34% -12.9%
all 179 -0.4% -9.8% 45% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 34% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 25% -21.3%
15% -26.3% 22% -28.9%
20% -33.6% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses80 / 99
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)179 / 188
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day136.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 40¢ 39¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Up 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$2 +14%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +324%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$20 +997%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $1 2m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $2 4m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 11m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $12 19m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $3 21m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 100¢ $6 22m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 6¢ $0 45m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $2 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 27¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 37¢ $1 9h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $1 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $1 9h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 881 history records