Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90b0…b2ee sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$280 (-4%) realized −$512 · open +$232
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$191
14 days−$185
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$310
other 17% +$20
crypto 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -17.0% -24.9% 67% 33% -37.0%
≤30d 101 -0.8% -10.3% 61% 47% -17.4%
≤90d 101 -0.8% -10.3% 61% 47% -17.4%
all 101 -0.8% -10.3% 61% 47% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 47% -17.4%
10% -18.9% 38% -25.3%
15% -26.7% 32% -32.6%
20% -33.9% 30% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$42 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,529
Realized−$512
Unrealized+$232
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 39
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions9
Markets (closed)101 / 110
History coverage23d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 46¢ 76¢ $245 $405 +$160 (+65%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $228 $278 +$50 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $225 $192 −$33 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $155 $177 +$22 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $120 $165 +$46 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $139 $95 −$44 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $80 +$4 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $78 +$22 (+39%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 74¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $45 +$8 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$15 +28%
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Paraguay to win the second half? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $56 +$46 +82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 11 $35 −$7 -20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $18 +$15 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $17 +$19 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $15 +$28 +188%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $18 +$17 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $21 +$12 +57%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $18 +$17 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $21 +$17 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $247 +$5 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $407 −$407 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $22 +$4 +20%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $6 +$1 +10%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $50 +$3 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $6 +$2 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2 +$6 +262%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $40 +$28 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $30 +$51 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $53 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $53 16h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $45 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $31 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $69 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 21h
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) BUY EDward Gaming 82¢ $50 34h
Paraguay to win the second half? BUY No 95¢ $50 34h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $102 47h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $56 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $10 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $10 7d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes $47 7d
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $115 7d
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $249 7d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 67¢ $31 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $28 10d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 10d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $123 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $143 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,529.48 · official $1,529.48 (match) · 357 history records