Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90ae…e97a sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-29%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$26
other 13% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.5% -5.4% 62% 62% -14.3%
≤30d 9 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +0.6%
≤90d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -32.6%
all 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 50% -32.6%
10% -30.4% 43% -39.0%
15% -37.1% 29% -44.9%
20% -43.3% 21% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $27 −$20 -73%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$7 +68%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $20 −$7 -35%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $5 +$1 +11%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 34¢ $5 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 16¢ $3 41h
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 88¢ $8 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 6¢ $1 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 94¢ $5 41h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $4 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $10 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $5 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 47¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 80¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 2d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano SELL Rousey 100¢ $16 30d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Rousey 82¢ $6 30d
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins SELL Ngannou 99¢ $6 30d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 20¢ $7 30d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Rousey 82¢ $7 30d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Diaz 40¢ $10 30d
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins BUY Ngannou 89¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 38 history records