Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x90ad…e47f crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.1% +6.0% 79% 71% +6.2%
≤30d 14 +17.1% +6.0% 79% 71% +6.2%
≤90d 14 +17.1% +6.0% 79% 71% +6.2%
all 14 +17.1% +6.0% 79% 71% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 71% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 64% -4.0%
15% -13.4% 50% -13.3%
20% -21.9% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records