Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90ab…7a08 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$883 (+1%) realized +$882 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$943per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$63
other 39% −$334
sports 17% +$1,268
world 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 10% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 10% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 9% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,343) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$12 · ×7.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$882
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage135d
Avg bet$943
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $526 $527 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,733 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,401 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 03 $335 +$1 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $431 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $986 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $3,674 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $874 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2,269 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? Apr 21 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,761 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3,941 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $887 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $418 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $421 20h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $421 23h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $420 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $420 27h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $420 45h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $421 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $422 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $422 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $421 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $421 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $422 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $423 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $440 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $441 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $526 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $469 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $469 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $892 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $893 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $921 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $922 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $834 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 20d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $830 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $554 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.02 · official $527.02 (match) · 473 history records