Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90aa…bfab sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+6%) realized +$183 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$45
other 33% +$112
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 46% -1.3%
≤30d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 46% -1.3%
≤90d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 46% -1.3%
all 24 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 46% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 46% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 29% -10.7%
15% -24.9% 29% -19.4%
20% -32.2% 21% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions29
Markets (closed)24 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 98¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Ghana 64¢ 64¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? No 94¢ 94¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-0%)
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 58¢ 100¢ $39 $68 +$29 (+72%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 69¢ 94¢ $49 $67 +$18 (+36%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Antonia Ruzic 40¢ 50¢ $49 $61 +$12 (+24%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 53¢ 52¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 82¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 96¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hannah Klugman Barbora Krejcikova 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Norway? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? No 95¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden? No 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03? No 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $20 +$21 +104%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $281 +$54 +19%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $110 +$7 +6%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $20 +$3 +13%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $40 +$28 +71%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $90 +$63 +69%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$15 +72%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $80 +$35 +43%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 28 $120 +$5 +4%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the announcers say "Transition" during the South Africa vs Canada Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the announcers say "History" during the South Africa vs Canada FI Jun 28 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the announcers say "Aggressive" during the South Africa vs Canada Jun 28 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$6 +11%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $131 +$49 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 95¢ $20 12m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $20 25m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $20 26m
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $20 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $20 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 71¢ $20 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 34¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Barbora Krejcikova 90¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 57¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $50 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 37¢ $50 1h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $20 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 71¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $20 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $20 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 88¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 90¢ $20 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $50 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 73¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.35 · official $1,110.00 (match) · 131 history records