Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x90aa…00f1 other 19 markets active 4d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$246 (+11%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$143
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.9% -23.9% 5% 5% -4.0%
≤30d 19 -15.9% -23.9% 5% 5% -4.0%
≤90d 19 -15.9% -23.9% 5% 5% -4.0%
all 19 -15.9% -23.9% 5% 5% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 5% -4.0%
10% -31.2% 5% -13.2%
15% -37.8% 5% -21.6%
20% -43.9% 5% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$13 · ×28.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage39d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 −$27 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 13 $54 −$9 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $77 −$10 -13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $533 −$94 -18%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 −$3 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $113 −$5 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $431 −$24 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $280 +$377 +135%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $73 −$5 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $512 −$18 -3%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 11 $22 −$16 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $46 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $67 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $11 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $34 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $13 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $108 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $242 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records