Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90a6…0518 crypto 592 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-4%) realized −$125 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%367W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$173
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 44% -9.3%
≤30d 279 -3.9% -13.1% 73% 57% -12.4%
≤90d 586 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 55% -14.8%
all 586 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 55% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 55% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 48% -23.0%
15% -31.0% 28% -30.4%
20% -37.8% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses367 / 219
Open positions6
Markets (closed)586 / 592
History coverage45d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.86 · official $7.86 (match) · 1150 history records