Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x90a6…fa71 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$23
politics 37% −$23
sports 11% +$40
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 143 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$523) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage132d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $298 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $523 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $306 −$2 -1%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 02 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $286 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $279 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $839 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $674 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $334 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $650 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 42h
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $45 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 28d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $249 29d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $249 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $298 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $298 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $251 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $290 32d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $290 32d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $320 32d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 32d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $310 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records