Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x90a2…dbbc sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$475 (-49%) realized −$452 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$156
other 16% −$61
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 27% -31.8%
≤30d 11 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 27% -31.8%
≤90d 11 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 27% -31.8%
all 11 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 27% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 27% -31.8%
10% -45.5% 27% -38.3%
15% -50.8% 27% -44.3%
20% -55.6% 27% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$65 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$452
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina to win the second half? Yes 91¢ 49¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 18 $41 +$35 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$140 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $74 +$74 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $98 −$33 -33%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.83 · official $51.83 · 20 history records