Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
90 0x909f…c1f3 crypto 568 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,156 (+16%) realized +$12,156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%289W / 279L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +20.0% +8.6% 64% 64% +33.6%
≤30d 80 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 65% +15.4%
≤90d 568 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 51% -5.5%
all 568 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 51% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 51% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 51% -14.5%
15% -28.8% 51% -22.8%
20% -35.7% 51% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$124 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$12,156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses289 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)568 / 568
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 568 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $215 +$194 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $269 +$231 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $269 +$241 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $108 +$94 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $161 +$142 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $484 +$425 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $54 +$46 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $107 +$93 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $107 +$93 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$141 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $323 +$281 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $376 +$330 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $322 +$278 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $538 +$479 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $323 −$323 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $609 +$542 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$47 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $108 +$94 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$48 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $484 +$428 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $323 +$285 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $549 +$502 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $430 −$430 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $215 +$192 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $323 +$285 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $215 +$187 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$48 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $323 +$279 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $161 +$139 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $161 −$161 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $161 +$139 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $215 −$215 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $532 −$532 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.62 · official $401.62 (match) · 3500 history records