Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x909d…6d4e world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 55L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$34
14 days−$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$17
other 34% +$1
politics 9% +$3
sports 8% +$4
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.4% -14.4% 22% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 36 -1.5% -10.9% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 46 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 91 -5.2% -14.3% 40% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage477d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 −$5 -12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $81 −$10 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $173 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $167 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 −$3 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$3 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $238 −$18 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $138 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $188 +$5 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $270 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $367 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $185 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $96 +$8 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $195 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $398 −$5 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $195 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $608 +$6 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $377 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $539 −$2 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $270 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $470 +$45 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $15 −$3 -23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $368 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $187 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $177 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $202 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $194 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $115 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $236 −$2 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,024 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,169 +$2 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,023 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $30 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $978 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $66 +$5 +7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1,018 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $151 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $71 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $32 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $48 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $111 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $173 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $159 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $149 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $114 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $172 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.21 · official $151.21 (match) · 360 history records